Un-Transitory

Week Ahead - April 7-11

I hope everyone is getting some rest this weekend. Personally, I can’t say I have gotten much at all. This past week was a shocker on par with some of the extremes in COVID and 2008. I couldn’t stop thinking about about the paradigm shift to the global economic regime and markets all weekend. I am sure I am not the only one.

In terms of the week ahead, we do have data but of course it will take a backseat to any news on the tariffs, namely do countries come in and negotiate their tariffs down to 0. We do have some economic data, with NFIB and Redbook on Tuesday, MBS apps Wednesday, CPI Thursday, PPI Friday but also the very important UMICH survey.

Let’s see if we can make sense of everything. On a side note, a client asked me to do an exercise, which is to try and write a note from Trump’s perspective, get to the bottom of their real goals and argue for the tariffs. I think I am close to figuring it out, with about 75% confidence, and so expect a note on his motivations this week.