I hope everyone is having a nice weekend and Mother’s Day with their loved ones.
I had the pleasure of joining fejau on the Forward Guidance podcast this past week, where I talked about the Fed’s passive easing, the cyclical conditions prevalent before the war and how this complicates their monetary stance. Check it out here: Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan.
This should be another busy week. Tomorrow we get existing home sales. Tuesday has NFIB and CPI. Wednesday has PPI. Thursday has retail sales, import prices. Friday has Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production.
Of course, we also have to manage the parabolas occurring in markets. I covered this in my note, Equity Outlook: Parabolas. I will share what I am looking for on when to step away from tech for a pull back. My technical indicators and data are the guide, not guru essays on bubbles.
I have also updated my views on FX last week in FX Outlook: Le Flip.
Check both of those out. I am also going to update my supply chain models ahead of CPI, which I first outlined in The Breaking Point.
I am working on other important notes that will come out in next few weeks: Systemics, on popular systemic risks like private credit and leverage. Commodity Outlook. Finally, a long awaited update to my The Tokyo Trilemma theme. Stay tuned.
Let’s dig in.