Mark Twain’s infamous quote: “History doesn’t repeat; it rhymes” rings true here. We are in a populist era defined by Mr. Trump’s two victories in 3 elections. He is a proud populist who has promised big, bold changes to help the middle class.
With that established, history is rhyming.
First, let’s compare trade wars to another populist event. The overwhelming consensus believes that the tariff policy will be like an oil shock - demand destruction will take down the economy. I outlined in this note why I disagree: Un-Transitory