Interference

Week Ahead - JUN 30 - JUL 3

I hope everyone is having a nice weekend. Last week had some very mixed data, which I will unpack below. More importantly, the White House continues to interfere with the Fed and undermine their independence and I think this is the bigger story. My note this week covered this in The Crisis To Come, and the developments Friday only raised the probability of such bad outcomes down the line.

In terms of the events this week, thankfully the war in Iran is over and we don’t have anything on that front to discuss. The data calendar is packed tight due to July 4th on Friday. Monday we have the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed Manufacturing. Tuesday is jam packed with both ISM and S&P Manufacturing PMIs, JOLTs. Wednesday has MBS apps, Challenger job cuts and ADP. Thursday is the main event, with NFP and jobless claims at the same time, S&P and ISM Services PMIs and Factory orders.

Let’s unpack it all.