I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. The title of the note reflects the exhaustion investors are feeling with respect to trade wars. The headline games never end, the story continues to change and as a result, many markets have simply gone sideways for weeks now. Given the news this week of a legal challenge to the reciprocal tariffs, which will likely head to the supreme court, it seems this is the world we will continue to navigate ahead. I am doing exceptionally well this year, but this past week was tough. I was long stocks, was gifted a sharp after hours rally on Wednesday due to the legal ruling, but gave back that PnL over the next two days. I have short bond positions and knew month end would be noisy, but missed a few hedge opportunities. C’est la vie, and we get back on the horse this week.
On Monday, we get S&P Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Manufacturing. Given the former, the latter should show improvement as well. Tuesday has Redbook, JOLTs and factory orders. JOLTs is quite noisy and will be for April, not May, so I intend to hedge rates for this release. Wednesday has MBS apps, ADP, S&P Services PMI, ISM Services. We also get a Bank of Canada rate decision, where I expect them to skip again. Thursday has Challenger job cuts, claims, ULC/productivity. Friday has NFP and consumer credit (for April). It will be a busy week.
