I hope everyone is enjoying the long weekend. Last week was quite a busy one as we wrapped up the summer and close out August. In actuality, August was a bitter one for me, with my 2nd down month this year at -3.5%, taking my YTD PnL to 143%. All told, it has been a good year, but August brought back memories of a prior year that still gives me PTSD: I see echoes of 2021.
In terms of the week ahead, it is jam packed with data while we wait for the Supreme Court to take on the tariffs case with tweets like the below to keep us glued to the topic. I don’t have a strong opinion on that yet, but will share when I do. In terms of data, tomorrow we get Redbook, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending. Wednesday has MBS apps, JOLTs. Thursday has Challenger job cuts, ULC/Productivity, S&P Services PMI, ISM Services. Friday is NFP and expectations are for 75k, with a tick up in UR to 4.3 and 0.3% AHE. Canada also has a payroll report, and I have a renewed focus there with a deep dive note into their structural dynamics that I am working on that should be out in a week or so.
Let’s dig in.
