I won’t rehash the general thinking on what transpired Friday in this note. For that, please see: To VAR Or Not.
This morning has a hint of more VAR shock moves, with China holding their ground calling their export controls lawful. Bessent hit back and said they are trying to drag the world economy down. Please be careful with risk taking and leverage.
As mentioned in the weekly note, I stopped out of my prior BTC long at the stop level of 117.5k. Respecting stops is the key to systematic trading as you cannot let emotions take over. If you do, then you leave yourself vulnerable to even worse outcomes.
ETH model on the other hand flagged the selloff and did well.
All told, if you followed both models you did ok last week.
BTC is 11/14 in live trading, with average gains of 2:1 versus losses.
ETH is 2/2 so far.
Updated model signals below.