Macro Musings by Danny D: Trades, Charts and Random Thoughts

Crypto Models Update

Danny Dayan — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 13:06:47 GMT

BTC continues to trade very well, alongside the rise in risk assets. It sits above its multi year support level, with the next level at a very important place.

Let’s look at what the models say. They continue to outperform any crypto expert out there. Not bad for a former crypto skeptic!

Crypto Update

Danny Dayan — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 13:07:52 GMT

Crypto has outperformed stocks outright and relative to software stocks.

Let’s see if our models want to participate!

To date, BTC strategy is 15/22 or 68% hit rate with winning trades having 2x the PnL of losing trades. ETH strategy is 3/3 with the same risk vs reward ratio but fewer signals.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 19:40:21 GMT

Due to the holiday, we didn’t release this last week. There have been major movements in markets since, so let’s look at the market models, technical indicators, CTA levels and positioning metrics closely.

Iran Thoughts

Danny Dayan — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:04:05 GMT

I will share some brief bullet point thoughts.

Crypto Models and Signals

Danny Dayan — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 12:41:21 GMT

There was no signal last week. I want to provide an update on where the models stand.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 27 Mar 2026 19:49:15 GMT

Below are all of the models and indicators updated after the wild week.

Have a great weekend. Get some rest.

Crypto Update: Reversion

Danny Dayan — Tue, 24 Mar 2026 13:51:16 GMT

An update on crypto models, technical and positioning indicators.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 19:47:45 GMT

Some wild moves this week, check out where the technical, positioning and model indicators stand below to be prepared for trading next week.

As always, if there is one you want highlighted, comment in the post and I will share it at the end of Sunday’s weekly note.

Have a great weekend.

Crypto Update

Danny Dayan — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:09:45 GMT

The last update I indicated that it looked like crypto had turned a corner. This was correct and led to another successful BTC model hit, taking the model to 15/22, or a 68% hit rate in live trading.

It’s time for an update on where things look now.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:49:20 GMT

I hope you are enjoying this report and that it gives you things to look at on the weekend.

As a reminder, clients can comment on any of the charts they want to see and I can highlight them in the weekly note on Sunday.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 20:53:53 GMT

As discussed last week, the goal is to share the indicators so that we all have what to chew on over the weekend.

My thoughts on all the craziness of this week will be Sunday. Get some rest.

Quick Thoughts on Oil

Danny Dayan — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 16:46:17 GMT

Let’s look at opportunities in oil, as I alluded to yesterday, now that pricing is updated.

If you read my 2026 Market Outlook, you will remember that it was my first theme. It has now repriced higher, and it’s time to adapt and focus on new strategies.

Weekly Indicators

Danny Dayan — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:52:07 GMT

As readers know, I have been re-building in a lot of my models and indicators in recent months. I used to have them built in a sellside system, but I have been recreating them in code since that system went down for good (RIP Locus!). I share them often in my weekly notes, and in the chatroom. I have since created summary reports for each of: Positioning, Market Models, Technical Indicators and CTA Trigger Levels. On a going forward basis, whenever possible, I will send a late Friday note with these summary tables once the CFTC positioning report is available. Hopefully this gives you something to chew on over the weekend.

I will explain what each of them are in this note as an introduction. On most weeks, it will be the tables without anything written by me.

I will continue to focus on crypto as a separate publication because those models use other data than market variables.

Finally, to make this fun and most useful for everyone, clients can comment on the note and ask for details on anything in the tables, and I will include them at the end of the next Sunday weekly note.

Positioning Summary. This table is broken down into 3 sections: Large Specs, Small Specs and Commercials. We rank their positioning by standard deviations, and also look at their weekly changes. A notable example is AUDUSD at the moment where large specs are the most long in recent years as a percentage of open interest. We can also see from the breakdown that small specs are also very long.

Models Summary. Here are a number of market models across various asset classes. I call these market models because they are based on market variables, as opposed to fundamental variables. The former can be equity prices, interest rates, mortgage rates, commodities, FX and such. The latter can be P/E ratios, economic data or other dynamics that are not in these models. Some of the models have very high R^2, and others do not. Naturally, we should weight those with the highest statistical significance higher than the others. They are also not timing tools. For example, the models have flagged NKY and EWY (Kospi ETF) as very rich for months, but the dislocations have not closed. Shorting them would have been a big loser, so it requires something changing, such as chart patterns, options flows, positioning or market sentiment for them to turn. As such, we do not trade blindly off the models but they are a valuable input into the process.

Copper Miners stand out as very rich to the model, with a high R^2 of 89% and a 2.6 Z-Score dislocation. For this reason, I have favored Copper itself over the miners. We can see that the model has tracked well for 10 years, and recently spot has shot up violently while the model value has not. Either this is a regime change and the model will eventually catch up, or it is calling BS on this price. The second chart shows the dislocation in % terms over time with horizonal Z-Score levels to quantify it.

CTA Signals. I track each asset relative to their distance from what I call CTA trigger levels. There are two trigger levels. There are lots of ways to track CTAs and by no means is this the only way. I have found these work well for me

Using 10y as an example. It had crossed above the CTA level which meant they were sellers. However, before long we crossed below in spite of better economic data as we were in risk off mode with stocks. You can see that once we triggered here, the rally and move lower in yields was violent despite no real fundamental reason for it. That is why it is so important to track CTA levels even if it is never perfect or comprehensively the only way they trade

Technical Indicators Summary. These are my favorite technical indicators that I have used for 15 years in my trading. Unfortunately, I need to put the paywall here as these indicators are proprietary and I must guard my secrets.

Crypto: Possible Turning Point

Danny Dayan — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 14:29:30 GMT

Last week I indicated a technical condition we needed to see for crypto to turn a corner. There are possible signs that turn is in. Below 72k is kind of a no man’s land for BTC. That being said, my technical indicators are improving.

I will update the models and indicators below. Let’s dig in.

Crypto Model Updates

Danny Dayan — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 14:17:02 GMT

Last week, I noted how the model values were falling sharply and thus a cautious stance was preferred. Turned out to be a good call, as we had a further decline in risk appetite.

BTC has since bounced from the 60k level and sits below 71.2k resistance.

Let’s see what the models think this week.

Crypto Regime Change

Danny Dayan — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 13:39:06 GMT

Last BTC update was a stopout, taking the strategy to 14/21 hit rate since live trading.

ETH had a signal on Friday and is now 3/3.

Things are changing, and we need to look closely at it.

Most Important Chart in World...Again

Danny Dayan — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 14:15:44 GMT

If you search through the archives, I have sent this chart before as my bible for VAR shocks.

Most Important Chart in World.

Let’s update.

Deleveraging

Danny Dayan — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 12:54:26 GMT

On Sunday, I asked whether this would turn into a broader VAR shock. Last night it became clear when I saw Silver plunge 15% out of nowhere. This is a broad deleveraging across the financial system. We can see it everywhere, from crypto to popular stocks, to metals. Everywhere there is a levered position, it is under attack.

My advice is to de-risk. It is dangerous out there.

If you want to look for what else could catch up on this, my models think NKY and EWY are very rich.

NKY is 15% rich.

Momentum is rolling over.

EWY is 36% rich, and momentum is rolling over.

My VIX indicators do not give the all clear.

Be careful.

Tech Musings

Danny Dayan — Wed, 04 Feb 2026 13:49:32 GMT

My view was that I wanted to be long tech for earnings season due to stronger than expected AI demand and CAPEX. The fundamental thesis has played out accurately but the market is not participating and cannot break out of this range.

Let’s unpack why.

Wellness Check on King Dollar

Danny Dayan — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 16:41:39 GMT

The Dollar has been slapped hard since Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Greenland. This raised concerns of another episode of the Doom Loop. So far, neither bonds nor stocks have been heavily sold.

Unlike metals, the Dollar cannot deviate too much from fundamentals. The biggest driver of the dollar is ultimately rate spreads. So yes, Trump wants lower rates, new Fed Chair will want lower rates, but if we are printing 3-4.5% GDP quarters, there will be no rate cuts no matter what they want.

Let’s explore the dollar via charts, models and technical indicators.